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Wednesday, 3 April 2013

The Big Bang (Part 1 of 2)


The Big Bang: The weapon that changed the world

‘I am become death, the destroyer of worlds’
– J. Robert Oppenheimer (creator of the Atomic Bomb)


Few things can legitimately claim to have changed the course of world history. The events of July 16th, 1945 are one of them. The world’s largest explosion was detonated in the New Mexico desert. Windows were blown out in homes up to 100 miles away, the flash could be seen at double that distance. The official story told even the 120,000 employees who worked on the experiment of an enormous explosion at an ammunition dump. In reality, only a handful of people – including President Truman and Prime Minister Winston Churchill – knew that this was the result of a six year experiment to move the goalposts of modern warfare, a project to build, test and unleash the most powerful weapon in the history of mankind. This massive explosion, the culmination of the greatest search for an instrument of death ever undertaken, reportedly prompted only two words from its chief creator: ‘It worked’.

In the first part of this article, Political Sticks looks at the history and the future of Nuclear weapons around the world:


Today: What are they? How powerful are they? Who invented them? Who has them?
Next week: Who wants them? Who’s used them? Arguments for and arguments against.


What is a nuclear bomb?
Explosions from ‘normal’ bombs use only the energy from the rapid burning of chemical compounds and energy is released from the outermost particles leaving the atoms intact. Nuclear bombs, on the other hand, fire highly radioactive and unstable enriched uranium and plutonium atoms towards each other and splitting them in a process known as fission. The colossal amount of energy released in a chain reaction results in the most powerful explosion possible.

How powerful are they?
Unimaginably powerful. The atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 killed around 75,000 people instantly. Thirteen square kilometres of the city was completely obliterated and the temperature in heart of the explosion reached several million degrees centigrade.

That bomb was a 15 kilotonne device. Today, Russia has developed the ‘Tsar Bomba’ - a 100 megatonne (or 100,000 kilotonne) bomb.

Below is an example taken from the wonderfully named ‘Nukemap’ website showing the effects of a Tsar Bomba dropped on central London. (You too can plot your own Armageddon scenario and unleash a nuclear weapon on your home town by visiting www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap).



Source: nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/



Who invented them?
J. Robert Oppenheimer, an American scientist, is the man widely regarded as being the inventor of the atomic bomb in 1945.

The British Government knew by 1941 that they had the knowledge to build an atomic bomb, but were aware also that they simply did not have the capacity to do so whilst engaged in a full scale war with Germany. So Prime Minister Winston Churchill turned to President Roosevelt, instigating a British-American-Canadian atomic bomb project with the signing of the Quebec Agreement in 1942.

The Agreement merged the British-Canadian ‘Tube Alloys’ nuclear research programme with the American ‘Manhattan Project’. The new look Manhattan Project eventually employed over 120,000 people and cost in the region of $26billion.

Oppenheimer was selected to lead the Manhattan Project’s secret weapons laboratory and three years later watched tensely as his calculations and theories took centre stage in the New Mexico desert.


Who has them?
At the beginning of 2013, eight states are known to have nuclear capability: USA, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. 

Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons but maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity, although there is extensive evidence to suggest the existence of nuclear weapons or a near-ready nuclear weapons capability, and President Jimmy Carter stated in 2008 that Israel ‘has 150 or more’ nuclear weapons.

Five states - Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey - have access to nuclear weapons controlled by the USA under the NATO nuclear weapons sharing agreement, and four states are known to have formerly possessed them: Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine being former Soviet Union states that returned their weapons to Russia in the mid-1990s. South Africa is the only state to have developed its own nuclear weapons and voluntarily dismantled them later.

The majority of states in the world have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (commonly known as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – or NPT).  Signatories of the NPT agree to the 3-pillars of the Treaty: 

Non-proliferation:

A nuclear state will not help, encourage or assist any non-nuclear state in the acquirement of nuclear capabilities

Disarmament:
The treaty describes a vague obligation to the signatories to move in the general direction of total disarmament. 

Sharing of nuclear technology for peaceful use: 
Nuclear states agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology provided non-nuclear states adhere to the first pillar.

Information on nuclear capacity is notoriously difficult to present with any real guarantee of accuracy. That notwithstanding, below is what is believed to be the best and most recent reflection:


World Nuclear Forces – end of 2012


Nuclear weapon states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970

Country:
Total Inventory:1
Year of first test:
United States
7,700
1945
Russia
8,500
1949
United Kingdom
225
1952
France
300
1960
China
240
1964

Nuclear weapon states that did not sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970

Country:
Total Inventory: 1
Year of first test:
India
80-100
1974
Pakistan
90-110
1998
North Korea
<10
2006

Undeclared nuclear powers

Country:
Total Inventory:1
Year of first test:
Israel
80
Undeclared (possibly 1979)

NATO Nuclear weapons sharing states

Country:
Total Inventory:[2]

The U.S. has provided 160-250 nuclear weapons for storage and deployment under NATO weapons sharing. U.S. nuclear weapons were also deployed in Canada until 1984, and in Greece until 2001 for nuclear sharing purposes.
Belgium
10-20
Germany
20-40
Netherlands
10-20
Italy
70-90
Turkey
50-90

States formerly possessing nuclear weapons

Belarus

The fall of the Soviet Union left these former Soviet republics in possession of nuclear weapons. All weapons were transferred to Russia by 1996.
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
South Africa
The only state to develop and later dismantle its nuclear weapons.





North Korea:
The current and unceasing military posturing by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is causing fear and instability not only in the region but also across the Western world. 

Little is known about the state, but it is considered to have recently made the advancement from crude nuclear deterrent capability to a fully-fledged nuclear power boasting an arsenal quite likely to contain a substantial amount of chemical weapons. Even less is known about the qualities, state of mind and agenda of the leader of this state.

What we do know is that North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and continues to develop and test nuclear weapons – at least three, possibly five, nuclear tests have been conducted since 2006, the latest of which came in February of 2013 and prompted sanctions to be imposed on the country by the US. Leader Kim Jong-Un’s response was to threaten a nuclear attack on the US, missile strikes on US bases and all-out war with South Korea.

Whether this threat was genuine or merely the aggressive rhetoric of a young leader pounding his chest is almost immaterial. It forced the US to bolster forces in the region thereby escalating the situation with Secretary of State John Kerry citing Washington’s distaste for reckless and irrational provocation.

The US wants to stop Kim Jong-Un picking a fight that escalates beyond words, but even the Americans aren’t sure what Kim’s agenda is. The question remains: where does this situation end? The answer, unfortunately, is that no-one really knows.


NEXT WEEK: Check back next week for the second part of the article including the use of nuclear weapons, the immediate proliferation concerns, and common arguments for and against nuclear proliferation.



Click on the links below to read previous content from Political Sticks:



 


1 http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclearweapons/nukestatus.html
2 http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/_images/EuroNukes.pdf

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